This article may contain affiliate links. Learn more on our Partner Program page.
Apple will release its September quarter results on Monday, and analysts consider the past quarter largely a sure thing. What comes next will be interesting: Forecasts for the holiday season vary widely. And for the first time, CEO John Ternus will have to answer questions.
Apple will release its results for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 on Monday, November 2nd, shortly before its earnings call, which Apple says will begin at 11 PM CET. The quarter ended on September 26th and therefore includes just over a week's sales period for the new Pro models; the iPhone Duo is not included at all. The starting point is the June quarter, which saw $109.4 billion in revenue and a 50.1 percent gross margin, including approximately two percentage points from customs refunds. Apple set the framework for the new quarter itself during its third-quarter earnings call. All reports surrounding the results can be found on the quarterly earnings page.
Key Facts at a Glance
- The consensus estimate is around $113 billion in revenue and just under $2 in earnings per share – at the upper end of Apple's own range.
- Analysts expect iPhone sales to grow by 14 to 17 percent, following growth of over 20 percent in previous quarters.
- Services are expected to increase by almost 10 percent, while the iPad is expected to shrink.
- Estimates for the December quarter range from just over 131 billion to over 170 billion dollars.
- The price targets are between $245 and $400, the price is close to the 52-week high.
Apple's own outlook as a benchmark
Chief Financial Officer Kevan Parekh gave fairly precise guidelines in the conference call about the third quarter:
| Key figure | Apple's outlook for July to September |
|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 9 to 11 percent |
| Currency effect | approximately 2.5 percentage points of headwind compared to the June quarter |
| iPhone | Growth in the mid-teens |
| Services | Growth similar to the June quarter, adjusted for currency effects |
| Gross margin | 47 to 48 percent, of which around 1 percentage point comes from customs refunds |
| Operating expenses | $19.1 to $19.4 billion |
| Tax rate | approximately 16.5 percent |
In addition, a clear warning was issued: Supply bottlenecks for iPhones, Macs, and iPads were expected to increase significantly compared to the June quarter. Tim Cook also announced higher storage costs in his final call as CEO.
Revenue and profit: The consensus is at the upper end
Compared to the same quarter last year, which saw revenue of $102.47 billion, Apple's forecast projects a revenue range of approximately $111.7 billion to $113.7 billion. Analysts are leaning towards the upper end of this range. Zacks, in a preview dated October 28, cites a consensus estimate of $112.95 billion, representing a 10.2 percent increase, and earnings per share of $1.98. Other data providers are forecasting revenue of $113.3 billion to $113.4 billion and earnings per share of $1.98 to $1.99.
In the same quarter last year, earnings per share were $1.85, and in the June quarter, they were $2.02. However, the June figure was boosted by customs refunds; without them, it would have been $1.91. Since the end of July, earnings expectations have declined slightly, from $2.01 to $1.98, according to Yahoo Finance. Apple has exceeded earnings per share expectations in each of the past four quarters, most recently in the June quarter with $2.02 instead of the projected $1.89.
The individual categories
The most complete set of sector estimates is provided by the Zacks consensus. UBS has also published its own figures.
| Division | Previous year (Q4 2025) | Zacks Consensus | UBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 102.47 billion $ | 112.95 billion $ | 112.8 billion $ |
| iPhone | 49.03 billion $ | 57.18 billion $ | 56 billion $ |
| Mac | 8.73 billion $ | 9.56 billion $ | – |
| iPad | 6.95 billion $ | 6.54 billion $ | – |
| Wearables, Home and Accessories | 9.01 billion $ | 9.00 billion $ | – |
| Services | 28.75 billion $ | 31.50 billion $ | 31.6 billion $ |
| Earnings per share | 1,85 $ | 1,98 $ | 1,97 $ |
| Gross margin | 47,2 % | 47.5 % (calculated) | 47,5 % |
The consensus margin is derived from Zacks' estimates for gross profit on products and services.
iPhone: Growth with the handbrake on
Apple had projected mid-double-digit percentage growth for the iPhone. Estimates are landing squarely in that range: just over 14 percent at UBS, 16.6 percent in the Zacks consensus. In the three preceding quarters, the division grew by roughly 22 to 23 percent annually. UBS attributes the slowdown to supply chain audits indicating more subdued demand and anticipates average prices will be around 5 percent higher, with roughly 5 percent fewer devices sold. Added to this are the supply bottlenecks that Apple itself has warned about. The iPhone 18 Pro, with its launch on September 18, will only contribute to the final days of the quarter.
Mac, iPad and wearables
The consensus forecast is for Mac sales to rise by almost 10 percent, while iPad sales are expected to decline by almost 6 percent. The wearables, home, and accessories segment is projected to remain at the previous year's level. The new Macs and iPad mini released in October will not yet impact the September quarter results.
Services and margin
Estimates for services are very close: around $31.5 billion, almost 10 percent more than the previous year, following around 12 percent in the June quarter. UBS expects only low single-digit growth for key areas, including the App Store.
Analysts expect the gross margin to be around 47.5 percent, roughly in the middle of Apple's range. Excluding tariff refunds, UBS calculates a decline of approximately 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and around one percentage point compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to increased memory chip prices. Adjusting Apple's own target for the tariff benefit, the margin falls to between 46 and 47 percent, below the 47.2 percent of the same quarter last year.
The December quarter will be decisive
The real test comes with the outlook for the holiday quarter, in which the iPhone Duo and Pro models will run for a full three months for the first time. Yahoo Finance lists a consensus of $153.55 billion, with a range of $131.5 billion to $170.4 billion among 17 analysts – almost $40 billion difference between the most conservative and the most optimistic estimates.
According to an analysis from October 21, Morgan Stanley expects only low to mid-single-digit growth for the December quarter and anticipates that Apple's outlook for iPhone sales and margins will fall slightly short of expectations. JP Morgan also expects a dip: because the base model of the new generation won't be released until early 2027, the bank anticipates a slight decline for iPhone sales in the December quarter. JP Morgan, however, considers the reports of reduced component orders for the iPhone 18 Pro to be the usual annual production adjustment.
Price targets between $245 and $400
The range of price targets is wide. Several firms have raised their positions in recent days:
| House | Classification | Course objective |
|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | Buy | 400 $ |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | 390 $ (formerly 360 $) |
| Evercore ISI | Outperform | 380 $ |
| JP Morgan | overweight | 360 $ (formerly 340 $) |
| Morgan Stanley | overweight | 355 $ |
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | Buy | 355 $ (formerly 335 $) |
| Loop Capital | Hold | 330 $ (formerly 370 $) |
| UBS | Neutral | 296 $ |
| Moffett Nathanson | Neutral | 283 $ (formerly 304 $) |
| Jefferies | Sell | 264 $ |
| KeyBanc | underweight | 250 $ |
| Barclays | underweight | 245 $ |
The average of all price targets, depending on the data provider, ranges from approximately $329 to $340. The stock closed at around $344 on October 28, just below its 52-week high of $351.73 – meaning the median price target is below the current price. The differing assessments of the situation are illustrated by the price targets lowered within a few days by Loop Capital ($330) and JP Morgan ($360). Loop cites the cancellation of approximately 13 million iPhone shipments in the second half of the year, weaker sales of the Pro models, declining average selling prices, and storage costs as reasons for the downgrade.
Ternus' first call as CEO
This is John Ternus's first conference call as Apple CEO. He was present as the designated successor for the June quarter results, but now he's leading the call alongside CFO Kevan Parekh. Besides the figures, three questions are likely to dominate the call: how well the iPhone Duo is selling, how much memory prices are impacting margins, and whether the supply shortages will extend into the holiday season.
Why the outlook outweighs the numbers
I expect Apple to narrowly meet or slightly exceed expectations for the September quarter. The consensus forecast is at the upper end of Apple's own range, and segment estimates are closely aligned with the July projections. Therefore, a revenue surprise would be unlikely.
More important is looking ahead. The stock is trading above its average price target, meaning the market has already priced in a lot of optimism. A cautious outlook for the holiday season, as Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan consider possible, would therefore have a greater impact than a strong September quarter. Regarding margins, I expect Apple to openly address storage costs – these are the first point at which the figures, excluding customs refunds, show a noticeable decline.
What do you think: Will supply bottlenecks and storage prices noticeably slow down Apple's Christmas quarter – or will the iPhone Duo boost the numbers? Let us know in the comments what revenue you expect for the December quarter.
