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One of Wall Street's largest banks believes Apple's latest price hike poses no growth risk and has raised its price target for the stock. The underlying bet is that customers will pay the higher prices rather than forgo purchasing the product. For buyers in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland (DACH region) who were hit hard by the increase, this is more than just a stock market issue.
At the end of June, Apple raised prices across almost its entire product range – Macs, iPads, Apple TV, HomePods, and Vision Pro – thus, for the first time in a long while, openly passing on the costs of the global storage shortage to end customers. CEO Tim Cook had previously described the move as practically unavoidable. The crucial question afterward was not whether the price hikes would happen, but how much the higher prices would dampen demand – and JP Morgan has now provided an initial, decidedly optimistic answer to precisely that question.
Why the bank remains optimistic despite higher prices
JP Morgan has raised its price target for Apple stock to $345, an increase of $20 from its last adjustment to $325 in January. Based on the closing price of $312.66 on July 6, this represents roughly 10 percent upside potential. The core of the argument is based on historical data: Over several years, sales figures for iPhones, Macs, and iPads have shown only a limited correlation with price. In other words, the bank assumes that most customers will buy their Apple devices regardless – even at higher prices.
The analysis sees the Mac business as the most resilient, as it spans many price points and also benefits from AI-driven demand. The high end of the iPhone line is also considered largely unaffected, because buyers with larger budgets tend to react little to price changes. The impact is more noticeable on the budget segment of iPhones and iPads – but even there, the bank anticipates a manageable dampening of revenue. In the short term, JP Morgan acknowledges that the magnitude of the markups is unsettling investors; the first reliable indicator will only be provided by the quarterly figures on July 30.
The increase is fully taking effect in the DACH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland)
What appears in the US analysis as abstract price elasticity has become very concrete for users in Germany – because the Eurozone was not spared. On June 25th, the MacBook Air climbed from €1,199 to €1,399, and the 14-inch MacBook Pro from €1,799 to €2,199. The most drastic jump was seen with the Mac Studio with M3 Ultra, whose top configuration jumped overnight from €4,999 to €6,999 – a 40 percent increase. The Vision Pro now costs €3,999 instead of €3,699. For Macs, the average increase was between 12 and 16 percent, with some models seeing increases of up to 25 percent.
Important to understand: This is not a special regulatory rule, but a global reaction to component costs – the markups therefore also apply outside the EU, for example in Switzerland, where prices in Swiss francs have risen accordingly. For now, the iPhone, Apple Watch, and AirPods have been spared. There was at least one small workaround: Apple temporarily offered affected devices like the MacBook Neo refurbished at the old price. Whether the theory of willing customers proves true ultimately depends on precisely such price tags.
The real test is yet to come
Market data paints a mixed picture. Market researchers predict a shrinking hardware market for 2026 – notebook shipments, for example, are expected to be significantly weaker than anticipated at the beginning of the year, according to a downwardly revised forecast, while Apple is positioned relatively robustly in this environment. This is precisely the core of JP Morgan's bet: not that the market will grow, but that Apple will gain ground relative to its competitors because smaller manufacturers are less able to absorb storage costs. Forecasts that project Apple to achieve historical market shares in smartphones, tablets, and laptops by 2026 support this interpretation.
The fact that the bank is not alone in this assessment is demonstrated by the pattern of recent months: Several institutions have raised their price targets because they believe Apple is better positioned than its competitors in the memory shortage. The litmus test, however, remains July 30th. Only the quarterly figures will reveal whether demand truly justifies the higher prices – and how much margins are suffering under the cost of the more expensive components.
Cook's last round of price increases as a turning point
The timing is remarkable. It is likely Tim Cook's last major strategic move before handing over the reins to John Ternus on September 1st – an uncomfortable decision that will relieve his successor of some of the burden. The cautious wording, suggesting they will only "begin" with price increases, also indicates that the most crucial figure is still pending: the price of the iPhone generation expected in September. JP Morgan's optimism rests on the assumption that Apple's demand is more robust than that of the industry as a whole. However, this assumption will not be confirmed or refuted by a price target, but rather by the bottom line – first on July 30th, and definitively only if the iPhone itself becomes more expensive. (Image: Shutterstock / Champ008)
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