MacBook prices and the slump in the laptop market

The global laptop market is heading for a significant decline this year – and Apple's recent price hikes for MacBooks are contributing to this. Despite this, Apple is expected to perform better than the rest of the industry.

Rising component prices have affected the entire notebook industry, and the consequences are now becoming tangible in concrete figures. According to a new forecast by the market research company TrendForce, global laptop shipments are expected to plummet by 13.6 percent in 2026. The report explicitly cites the higher MacBook prices recently imposed by Apple as one contributing factor. At the beginning of the year, the same market research firm had already identified Apple as an exception in a declining market – and this fundamental assessment remains largely unchanged despite the new figures.

Why even premium brands pass on the costs

The report's key finding: Even premium vendors are no longer immune to memory shortages and rising component costs. TrendForce interprets Apple's price increases across the entire MacBook line as proof of this. The root cause lies deeper in the supply chain. The persistently high demand for AI servers ties up storage capacity and advanced semiconductor resources, maintaining pressure on component costs. These costs are gradually passed on to retail prices – with noticeable consequences for consumer willingness to buy.

This same mechanism is already evident elsewhere in Apple's product range, for example, when the company discontinued the cheapest Mac mini model due to memory chip shortages. The report identifies the passing on of these costs as the point at which declining consumer demand becomes apparent. Several notebook brands have already recorded weaker demand – particularly noticeable in the entry-level and mid-range segments, where price sensitivity is most pronounced.

Higher prices could drive some buyers away

One side effect of the more expensive MacBooks concerns the competition. According to the report, Apple's higher prices reduce the overlap with certain premium Windows notebooks. This could lead some price-sensitive buyers to switch to Windows devices. However, this effect is not significant: because notebook prices are rising across the board and overall demand is weak, the migration is likely to remain limited. TrendForce explicitly does not see this shift as a noticeable driver of a general market recovery.

Apple remains the outlier on the upside

Despite the challenging environment, Apple's outlook is better than that of the overall market. TrendForce predicts that Apple will ship around 23.1 million notebooks in 2026, even if demand weakens in the second half of the year. This is made possible by a surprisingly strong first half of the year, which should deliver double-digit year-over-year growth for the company.

The report cites the upgrade based on Apple's own silicon chips and a stable macOS ecosystem as reasons for this success. These structural advantages had already become apparent when Apple partially absorbed the increased storage costs itself instead of passing them on to customers in full. While many competitors are forced to raise prices, Apple's control over its own chip base gives it more flexibility in capacity planning and cost negotiation.

Why the second half of the year will become more critical

The strong first half of the year, however, has a downside. Some of the demand expected in the second half of the year was brought forward, leaving less to support the market towards the end of the year. At the same time, the passed-on component costs are meeting with growing consumer resistance to higher prices. From this combination – brought-forward demand, rising costs, and increasing price resistance – TrendForce derives its projected 13.6 percent decline in global laptop shipments.

A market under pressure, a manufacturer with tailwinds

The report paints a picture of an industry caught between cost pressures and weak demand. For Apple, however, the results are comparatively favorable: While the price cuts for MacBooks are contributing to the headwinds, its own supply chain and its commitment to the macOS ecosystem mean that the company is likely to outperform the general downward trend. (Image: Shutterstock / Suman Maji77)