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The global notebook market is facing a challenging year. According to a new forecast from market research firm TrendForce, worldwide shipments will decline significantly more sharply in 2026 than previously expected. Apple is the major exception – and this is primarily due to the MacBook Neo and its in-house supply chain.
TrendForce drastically lowers its forecast: Minus 14.8 percent
TrendForce has once again revised its forecast for global notebook shipments in 2026 downwards. Instead of a decline of 9.2 percent, the company now expects a year-on-year drop of 14.8 percent. The report speaks of a "profound industry correction.".
The reasons for this are manifold. Firstly, the hoped-for recovery of the consumer market has failed to materialize. Macroeconomic headwinds and rising prices are dampening consumer spending. Secondly, the sharply increased component costs – particularly for memory chips – are driving notebook prices even higher. TrendForce explains that the rising demand for computing power for AI applications is putting additional pressure on memory prices.
The result: Notebook manufacturers are increasingly passing on the higher costs to end customers. Further price increases are expected in the coming quarters. This makes consumers even more cautious – a vicious cycle that further depresses sales figures.
Apple bucks the trend: 7.7 percent growth expected
While the overall market is shrinking, TrendForce forecasts a 7.7 percent year-over-year increase in Apple's notebook shipments. This would raise macOS's market share to 13.2 percent. Apple thus represents a clear outlier in an otherwise declining market.
According to TrendForce, Apple benefits from several structural advantages. Its in-house Apple Silicon chips reduce dependence on external CPU suppliers and give Apple greater flexibility in capacity planning and cost negotiation. In addition, a highly standardized product range with few, clearly defined configurations enables larger purchasing volumes and stronger negotiating positions with suppliers.
In contrast, Windows vendors typically maintain far more fragmented product portfolios with numerous different memory and processor configurations. This makes it more difficult to manage inventory and cost risks in times of rising component prices.
MacBook Neo as a strategic growth driver
A key factor in Apple's positive forecast is the MacBook Neo. With a starting price of $599, the device targets the mainstream segment between $500 and $800 – a range that has so far been dominated by Windows notebooks and Chromebooks.
TrendForce sees this as a deliberate move into lower price categories. While competitors are forced to raise prices due to rising costs, Apple is taking the opposite approach, sacrificing short-term margins in favor of market share and user growth. TrendForce forecasts sales of 4 to 5 million units for the MacBook Neo alone in 2026.
The MacBook Neo could give Apple a particular advantage in the education sector. Its entry-level price is competitive in public tenders for schools and universities.
Market polarization is increasing
TrendForce expects the gap between large and small notebook manufacturers to widen further in 2026. Besides Apple, the report also sees Lenovo as comparatively well-positioned – thanks to economies of scale and strong supply chain relationships. While price increases are unavoidable for Lenovo, they could be lower than those of its competitors.
Smaller brands, on the other hand, face significantly greater challenges. They often lack negotiating power with suppliers and are more exposed to fluctuations in component availability and delivery times. This could further intensify market concentration in the coming quarters.
- MacBook Neo vs. MacBook Air: The most important differences
- MacBook Air vs. MacBook Pro 2026: Which is worth it?
- MacBook Air M5: 13 vs. 15 inch – Which size is worth it?
- MacBook Neo: Why this Apple notebook is so important
- MacBook Air vs. Neo: Is the extra cost worth it?
Apple and the notebook market in 2026: Special position thanks to vertical integration
Apple's position in the shrinking notebook market demonstrates once again how much the company benefits from its vertical integration. The combination of its own chips, a lean product range, predictable demand planning, and long-term supplier relationships enables Apple to swim against the tide, even in a challenging market environment.
With the MacBook Neo, Apple has a product in its portfolio that arrives at just the right time: at a time when competitors are forced to raise prices, Apple is offering a new, more affordable device. Whether TrendForce's forecast of 7.7 percent growth is correct—or whether the actual figures will be even higher—will become clear over the course of the year. (Image: Apple)
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