iPhone Ultra is driving the foldable market

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Apple's entry into the foldable market could give a significant boost to the recently sluggish foldable display business. A new market analysis predicts a substantial increase in panel shipments this year – and identifies Samsung Display as one of the major beneficiaries.

The foldable smartphone market is undergoing a period of realignment, and Apple's first foldable device is likely to be a turning point. Previous estimates suggested that Apple could capture around a fifth of the global foldable market in its first year. A recent analysis by Counterpoint Research now backs up this expectation with concrete figures: the launch of the iPhone Ultra is expected to significantly boost shipments of foldable display panels in 2026. While the device's market launch has not yet been officially confirmed, the supply chain is visibly preparing for it.

Foldable panels are expected to grow significantly again in 2026

According to the report, shipments of foldable smartphone panels are expected to increase by 24 percent this year, while the associated revenue is projected to rise by around 48 percent year-on-year. This upswing follows a weak start to the year: In the first quarter of 2026, panel shipments declined by 7 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The report cites a cautious inventory policy by brands and a lower number of new product launches as reasons for this decline.

Who currently dominates the panel market

A look at market shares in the first quarter of 2026 shows how the market is currently distributed. The largest supplier remained the Chinese manufacturer BOE with a share of 45 percent, followed by Samsung Display with 22 percent. Behind them are Visionox with 16 percent, TCL CSOT with 13 percent, and Tianma with 4 percent – although Tianma had previously achieved exceptional year-on-year growth of 578 percent.

It's remarkable that BOE is leading the foldable panel market, because the Chinese manufacturer no longer plays a role in Apple's OLED orders for the next generation of devices. Apple is relying on a different partner for the foldable iPhone.

Samsung Display benefits twice

According to current reports, Samsung Display will be the sole panel supplier for Apple's first foldable iPhone – an exclusive agreement that gives the South Korean company an additional boost. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, Samsung Display's shipments increased by 37 percent year-over-year, and its market share rose by seven percentage points.

This allows Samsung Display to further expand its position and is likely to benefit disproportionately from the launch of the iPhone Ultra – while the company simultaneously operates its own foldable business with the Galaxy models.

Why the foldable market is currently shifting

Behind these figures lies a shift in device designs. According to the report, fold-out models in a book design, which open to a tablet-like surface, have evolved from a niche format to the standard. While they were roughly on par with the smaller clamshell-style models in 2025, they will clearly pull ahead in 2026, while the clamshell segment shrinks.

It's important to understand that this trend isn't solely driven by Apple. The report cites productivity-oriented use cases, the experience of larger screens, and improved profitability as further drivers. While Apple isn't the only factor, it plays a central role in the anticipated recovery.

First the soil, then the recovery

The report paints a two-part picture for the full year 2026: The first half of the year will explore the low point, while the second half will test the recovery. Should Apple and Samsung successfully launch their new products and deliver a compelling user experience, the foldable market could return to a growth cycle. In this scenario, the foldable iPhone would be less a single new model and more the catalyst for an entire market movement. (Image: Shutterstock / Media Whale Stock)