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Five million units sold in just over two months – that's what one market researcher predicts Apple's first foldable iPhone will achieve by the end of the year. More interesting than this figure, however, is the figure next to it: without the new product, the entire market for foldable smartphones would be around a quarter lower than last year.
Since its unveiling on September 9th, Apple's first foldable iPhone is no longer just a rumor, but a device with a price, release date, and specifications. This allows for a recalculation of market forecasts, which for months had to rely on placeholders. TrendForce did just that the day after the keynote – and arrived at a picture that is flattering for Apple and uncomfortable for the rest of the industry.
Key Facts at a Glance
- TrendForce expects around 5 million iPhone Duo units to be shipped in 2026, representing 24.8 percent of the foldable market.
- The total market amounts to approximately 20.2 million devices, an increase of only 0.5 percent compared to the previous year.
- Without Apple, Android brands will remain at around 15.2 million devices – over 20 percent less than in 2025.
- Samsung remains in the lead with 7.1 million devices, while Huawei is tied with Apple, also with 5 million.
- The report cites sharply increased component costs as the reason for the decline.
The forecast in numbers
The market shares are calculated based on the aforementioned unit numbers and a total market of 20.2 million devices. All other brands combined account for approximately 3.1 million devices.
| Brand | Deliveries 2026 | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung | 7.1 million. | 35,1 % |
| Apple | 5.0 million. | 24,8 % |
| Huawei | 5.0 million. | 24,8 % |
| All the rest | 3.1 million. | 15,3 % |
| Total market | 20.2 million. | 100 % |
Remarkably, Apple shares second place with Huawei: According to the calculations, both manufacturers end up with the same number of units sold, even though one has been selling foldable devices for years and the other has ten weeks.
What would have happened without the new addition to the year?
The overall market grew by 0.5 percent, which translates to an increase from approximately 20.1 to 20.2 million devices. This stagnation is solely due to Apple. Subtracting the 5 million foldable iPhones leaves 15.2 million devices – a decrease of over 24 percent compared to the previous year.
The decline therefore doesn't affect individual laggards, but rather the established market. The TrendForce report cites sharply increased component costs as the cause, under which most brands are at best maintaining last year's levels. A market researcher with access to the display and component supply chain has a solid basis for such statements, but offers an estimate: Apple's actual sales figures will not be known before the Christmas quarter, and Apple has not reported individual iPhone unit sales for years.
Two forecasts that don't match up
At the beginning of August, growth in the foldable device segment for the current year was projected at 20 percent, based on supply chain data and the preparation of approximately 10 million devices by Apple's suppliers. This 20 percent figure has now dwindled to 0.5 percent. Both figures come from the same industry, but from different companies and at different stages: one before, and one after, the announcement with a reliable release date.
Even the figures for Apple's own units sold differ. One forecast, which attributes a market share of around 25 percent to Apple, anticipates up to 6 million devices, while TrendForce projects 5 million. Both firms arrive at nearly identical market share estimates – suggesting that the two firms primarily use different approaches to assess the overall market size. This discrepancy remains unresolved, and neither figure can currently be verified.
How Apple's design changes the industry
Beyond mere sales figures, the report describes what will determine future competition: thinner designs, less visible creases, and durability over years. TrendForce highlights the Duo's ten-layer construction of the inner display with nanotexture, as well as the frame and hinge cover made of Grade 5 titanium, a weight of approximately 254 grams, and a height of 5.2 millimeters when open.
The camera pays the price: It lacks a dedicated periscope telephoto lens; instead, the 48-megapixel main module delivers a 2x optical zoom, and Touch ID is integrated into the side button instead of Face ID. The report interprets these decisions as evidence of how closely the trade-off between form factor, camera technology, biometrics, and battery life remains in this device class.
Five million in ten weeks
The forecast is more ambitious than the year suggests. The duo will be available in stores on October 23rd, leaving 69 sales days until the end of the year. Five million units sold during this period translates to an average of approximately 72,000 units sold per day – with a starting price of €2,299 in Germany. By comparison, Samsung needs the entire year and a single established product line to sell its 7.1 million units.
Anyone in this country considering buying one should therefore not interpret the forecast as a guarantee of availability: A figure of this magnitude presupposes that production will be on track from the very beginning. This is precisely what had recently been the subject of doubt in the supply chain. For the rest of the industry, the calculation is uncomfortably clear – the only contribution to growth this year will come from a device that will only hit the shelves ten weeks before New Year's Eve.
Do you think five million foldable iPhones in just over two months is realistic – or is that just a number for the spreadsheet and not for the shelves at that price? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
