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Three weeks after its launch, the iPhone 18 Pro is selling slightly better than its predecessor. However, this increase of just over three percent is almost entirely attributable to one market: sales are declining in the US and Japan.
Market research firm Counterpoint Research has analyzed the first few weeks of sales for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. According to Counterpoint's analysis, worldwide sales of the series in the first three weeks after its launch on September 18th were 3.1 percent higher than those of the iPhone 17 Pro in the same period last year. Counterpoint itself describes the launch as mixed.
The data comes from the company's weekly sales tracker and records sales to end customers, not deliveries to retailers. Counterpoint does not disclose unit numbers, only the year-on-year change.
Key Facts at a Glance
- The iPhone 18 Pro series sold 3.1 percent better in the first three weeks than the iPhone 17 Pro did last year.
- China grew by 29 percent and accounts for the majority of the growth; without China, growth would be significantly weaker.
- Sales declined in the US and Japan, mainly due to higher prices.
- The Pro Max accounts for 56 percent of series sales, compared to 57 percent last year.
China is pulling ahead, the USA and Japan are holding back
China saw the strongest growth, with a 29 percent increase compared to the previous year. Counterpoint cites two reasons: better availability at launch than last year and price increases for competing flagship models from Chinese Android manufacturers. This trend was already evident in the launch week, when the iPhone 18 Pro was number one in China.
In contrast, sales declined in the US and Japan. In both countries, the new models are more expensive than their predecessors. Counterpoint reports that in the US, buyers perceive no significant improvements in either features or design compared to the previous year. In Japan, the exchange rate further exacerbates the price increase.
Business was also good in India, though Counterpoint did not provide a specific figure. Europe is not reported separately.
| Market | Improvement compared to iPhone 17 Pro |
|---|---|
| Worldwide | +3,1 % |
| China | +29 % |
| India | increased, without number |
| USA | decreased, without number |
| Japan | decreased, without number |
Pro Max loses weight easily
Within the series, 56 percent of sales were for the iPhone 18 Pro Max, compared to 57 percent for the iPhone 17 Pro Max the previous year. Counterpoint attributes this to higher prices and the fact that growth in emerging markets like India and Southeast Asia was stronger for the smaller Pro model. Thus, the majority still opts for the larger model, with the difference between the Pro and Pro Max shifting by only one percentage point.
What the next few weeks will show
Associate Director Sujeong Lim sees two crucial factors for the coming weeks:
Whether China's lead reflects sustained demand or simply purchases brought forward will become clear in the coming weeks. The recovery of sales in the US and Japan, and whether the iPhone Duo, launching in week 43, generates additional demand instead of taking buyers away from the Pro Max, are the two most important variables in the near future.
Research Director Tarun Pathak points to the strong previous year and the increased prices:
This launch follows very strong sales of the iPhone 17 series last year, while storage-related price increases and economic uncertainty are slowing upgrades. Upgrade cycles are becoming longer overall. However, even single-digit unit growth plays into Apple's hands.
The duo is still missing from the bill
I consider the timing of the analysis more important than the 3.1 percent figure itself. Three weeks from September 18th end around October 8th. The iPhone Duo only went on sale on October 23rd, in week 43. Therefore, it's not yet reflected in the figures. Whether it's taking sales away from the Pro Max will only become clear in the next few weeks' figures at the earliest.
The figures align with what has been emerging in recent weeks. Loop Capital assumed in mid-October that canceled iPhone orders would not be rescheduled and lowered its price target for Apple stock. In contrast, the quarterly report also showed that Apple jumped from sixth to second place in China.
The reluctance of US buyers addresses precisely the question that iPhone 17 Pro owners in Germany are also asking themselves. A comparison between the iPhone 18 Pro and the iPhone 17 Pro reveals what has actually changed between the two generations.
Have you already bought the iPhone 18 Pro, or are you keeping your iPhone 17 Pro for another year? Let us know in the comments if the upgrade was worth the extra cost.
