Three days after pre-orders began, most iPhone 18 Pro models are available for immediate delivery in the US. One analyst interprets this as subdued demand and has lowered his production forecast – for both the Pro series and the foldable iPhone Duo. However, the reason doesn't lie solely with customers.
Pre-orders have been available since September 12th, with deliveries starting Friday. The available models, colors, and storage capacities can be found in the overview of all data and prices for the Pro series. Jeff Pu of GF Securities has now analyzed the delivery times in the US Apple Store and has reached a subdued conclusion.
Key Facts at a Glance
- Most iPhone 18 Pro models are available immediately in the US on the day of sale.
- For the Pro Max, the 256 GB and 512 GB versions have a delivery time of three to four weeks across all colors.
- The analyst attributes this to manageable innovations and higher prices.
- The production estimate for the Pro and Pro Max drops to 72 million units, due to the new variable aperture.
- The annual estimate for the iPhone Duo drops from seven to six million; the hinge is the bottleneck.
What the delivery times show
| Model and configuration | Delivery time USA |
|---|---|
| Pro Max, 256 and 512 GB, all colors | 3 to 4 weeks |
| Pro Max, 1 TB in burgundy | 3 to 4 weeks |
| Pro Max, 1 TB in Black and Glacier | 1 to 2 weeks |
| Pro Max, 2 TB, almost all configurations | immediately |
| iPhone 18 Pro, except 256 GB in Burgundy | immediately |
In China, the analysis indicates a waiting time of two to three weeks for the Polar Pro Max with 256 and 512 GB of storage. The distribution is striking: waiting times are more frequent for the smaller storage capacities of the larger model, while the more expensive configurations are consistently available immediately.
This assessment comes from an investor note and is based solely on delivery times, not sales figures – which Apple does not publish. Delivery times always reflect the relationship between demand and available quantity. The fact that the same analyst simultaneously cites manufacturing bottlenecks for the variable aperture does not clarify the situation.
Prices as a stated reason
The note cites limited technical innovations and price, especially for the larger storage capacities, as the reasons. In the US, the iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199 and the Pro Max at $1,299; the 2TB versions cost $2,399 and $2,499, respectively.
The actual extent of the technical difference compared to the previous generation can be seen in the comparison between the iPhone 18 Pro and the iPhone 17 Pro – the differences are broken down individually there.
The foldable model as a competitor within its own company
A second reason for the Pro Max's sluggish launch, according to the note, lies with the iPhone Duo. Pre-orders for the Duo begin on October 16th, with deliveries starting on October 23rd, and US prices ranging from $1,999 to $3,199. Those already buying in the top price segment thus have a second option four weeks after the Pro launch – and a reason to wait.
The fact that production of the folding mop is starting up more slowly than planned aligns with the picture that emerged from the supply chain at the beginning of September: At that time, it was said that production was only delivering hundreds of units per day. The now reduced annual quantity fits with this.
Why one week doesn't provide a balance sheet
The distribution of the waiting times only partially carries the headline. The smaller storage capacities of the larger model are affected, while the 2TB version is available immediately for $2,499. The reduced production volume, in turn, is due to a component used only in the Pro series – a supply bottleneck produces the same figures as weak demand.
For those planning a Friday purchase, this finding is rather good news: Those who have opted for the iPhone 18 Pro, according to this interpretation, won't have to expect weeks of waiting. However, for the Pro Max with medium storage capacity, it's worth checking the store before setting a preferred delivery date. Anyone still undecided can find a comparison between the iPhone Duo and the iPhone 18 Pro to help them weigh the pros and cons.
Are you waiting for the foldable model in October, or are you going for the Pro on Friday – and if so, did the price of the larger storage capacities sway you towards a smaller version? Let us know your calculations in the comments.
