Apple dominates the global smartphone market thanks to the iPhone 17

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Apple is poised for significant growth. New data from Counterpoint Research shows that the iPhone 17 series is clearly outperforming the market, and Apple could overtake Samsung by the end of 2025. The latest figures suggest a shift in the balance of power in the smartphone market.

The smartphone market has changed dramatically in recent years. During the Covid-19 pandemic, an exceptionally high number of devices were purchased, and many of these models are now reaching the end of their life cycle. Global market growth is only moderate, but this presents an advantage for Apple. The iPhone 17 series is being launched at an optimal time and is benefiting from a significant demand for upgrades. Current data from several Counterpoint reports clearly illustrates the direction the market is heading.

Strong sales figures for the iPhone 17 series

Counterpoint Research published two analyses highlighting Apple's recent performance. In the first month after the launch of the iPhone 17 series, Apple's sales increased by 22 percent. During the same period, the overall smartphone market declined by 2.7 percent. October painted an even more striking picture. Apple achieved a year-over-year increase of 37 percent, while the overall market grew by only 8 percent.

These figures are a key reason why, according to Counterpoint's new report, Apple expects 10 percent growth by the end of 2025. Samsung, on the other hand, is only projected to grow by 4.6 percent. With this lead, Apple could achieve a market share of 19.4 percent and thus take the global lead.

Why Apple is growing

According to analyst Yang Wang, there are two key factors behind the strong forecasts. The first is the very positive market response to the iPhone 17 series. Despite the rather lukewarm reception of the iPhone Air within the product family, demand remains high.

The second reason lies in the current replacement cycle. Many devices purchased during the Covid-19 boom are now reaching their upgrade phase. A large number of users are looking for a new smartphone, and Apple is benefiting particularly strongly from this.

Between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, 358 million used iPhones were also sold. Many of these buyers are likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years, supporting long-term demand.

Moderate overall market growth

The Counterpoint report also shows that the global smartphone market is only expected to grow by 3.3 percent. In comparison, Apple's projected growth of 10 percent appears significantly stronger. This demonstrates that Apple is not only benefiting from the market environment, but is primarily growing due to the strength of its own products.

The forecast is positive until at least 2029.

The report suggests that Apple could remain the world's number one smartphone manufacturer until at least 2029. This is partly due to the rumored upcoming foldable iPhone. Additionally, the iPhone 17e is expected to open up a new segment in the product portfolio and appeal to additional target groups.

Apple itself expects a particularly strong Christmas quarter. At the last earnings call, CEO Tim Cook highlighted the very strong initial performance of the iPhone 17 series. The company sees this product family as a crucial driver for the coming months, even though the iPhone Air model was less successful.

The iPhone 17 series as an engine for new market growth

Apple is clearly on an upward trajectory. The iPhone 17 series is exceeding expectations, allowing Apple to grow faster than the overall smartphone market and significantly faster than Samsung. The upcoming upgrade cycle, the large number of used iPhones in circulation, and new product lines are creating an environment in which Apple can regain market leadership. If the forecasts prove accurate, Apple will remain the strongest brand in the global smartphone market well beyond 2025. (Image: Shutterstock / Stockinq)