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Apple executive Eddy Cue recently attracted attention: He predicted we might not need an iPhone in ten years. This isn't the first time Apple executives have said something like this. Similar speculations with the same time horizon were made in 2019. The idea sounds far-fetched at first glance. But there are good reasons why Apple is taking this idea seriously—and why you shouldn't simply dismiss it either.
Apple is known for thinking far into the future. The idea that the iPhone—the company's most successful product—will eventually become obsolete sounds provocative at first. But that's precisely a realistic consideration in Silicon Valley. Technologies evolve rapidly. Apple doesn't want to be the next Nokia—a company that lost its edge because it was too late to recognize the signs of the times. Below, we'll discuss why Apple sees the iPhone as being at risk , which developments support this view—and why it's still possible that you'll still be using an iPhone in ten years.
The iPhone is the center of Apple's business
The iPhone isn't just a smartphone. It's the most profitable product in Apple's portfolio—and the central entry point into the Apple ecosystem. Many people buy an iPad, a Mac, or an Apple Watch simply because they already own an iPhone. The majority of service revenue—for example, from iCloud, Apple Music, or the App Store—is also directly dependent on the iPhone. If the iPhone disappears or is replaced by something else, it affects the entire company. Even if every other Apple product were a successful business in its own right, the iPhone is the central hub. Without it, the entire business model could falter. That's why Apple takes every threat to the iPhone seriously—even if it seems speculative today.
What we can learn from history
Anyone who believes that the iPhone is irreplaceable was probably not there when Nokia dominated the global market. In the early 2000s, Nokia temporarily held a market share of over 50 percent in the mobile communications sector – significantly more than the approximately 28 percent that Apple currently achieves with the iPhone. Nokia was cool, innovative and everywhere. Then came the iPhone. And Nokia underestimated the danger. The company clung to physical keyboards and overlooked the fact that touchscreens and software were the new heart of the smartphone future. Within eight years, Nokia's market share almost completely disappeared. And yet there were voices within Nokia warning against this development. They were ignored. Apple wants to avoid this mistake. No company is too big to fail. No product is so established that it cannot be displaced.
New devices could replace the iPhone
Another reason Apple is considering a future without the iPhone is new device classes. AI badges are unlikely to become widespread – they are simply too immature and impractical. But smart glasses? That's a whole different story. The Apple Vision Pro is a first step. The device is still expensive, bulky, and aimed more at developers and technology enthusiasts. But Apple has a clear goal with the Vision Pro: It is paving the way for Apple Glasses – lighter, everyday glasses that could eventually take over many of the iPhone's functions. Today it may sound strange that in ten years everyone will be walking around wearing glasses to communicate or access information. But in 2007, no one would have thought we would spend half our lives on a touchscreen. The idea seems futuristic, but it's not impossible.
Artificial intelligence is changing the way we use devices
The current AI hype is exaggerated in many areas. Everything is suddenly "AI-powered" – even where it makes little sense. Nevertheless, artificial intelligence will continue to evolve. In ten years, AI systems could be so advanced that you can truly trust them. If you can simply ask your glasses something – and they reliably do the task for you – why would you even take a device out of your pocket? The classic touchscreen might then become obsolete. The combination of AI and wearables could gradually replace the iPhone.
Why the iPhone could still stay
Despite all the developments, there is every reason to believe that the iPhone will still be around in ten years. The laptop is a good example. The basic design has hardly changed since the 1980s. The folding mechanism, keyboard, screen – all of this has been around for decades because it works. The smartphone – more precisely, the flat device with a touchscreen – has also proven itself. It is handy, flexible, and intuitive to use. It is quite possible that foldable models will become more popular, or that the device will become thinner and lighter. But the basic idea is unlikely to become outdated anytime soon. Therefore: Apple is rightly considering alternatives to the iPhone. But that does not automatically mean that the iPhone will disappear.
Future without iPhone? Apple thinks beyond tomorrow
Apple is planning for the long term. The company is realistically considering what technology might look like in ten years—and what that means for the iPhone. The comparison with Nokia shows: It's dangerous to believe that a successful product is irreplaceable. At the same time, there are good reasons why the iPhone could continue to exist in the future. Whether you're walking through town with Apple Glasses in ten years or simply pulling an iPhone 27 out of your pocket—both are possible. The crucial thing is that Apple is prepared. And that you take the discussion seriously, even if the iPhone still seems indispensable today. The best products for you: Our Amazon storefront offers a wide selection of accessories, including those for HomeKit. (Image: Shutterstock / Roman Samborskyi)
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