iPhone Fold: Analysts see a strong impact on the segment

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The iPhone Fold is getting closer, and with the latest estimates from IDC, a clearer picture is emerging of just how significant the impact of Apple's first foldable smartphone could be. Expectations are high because the entry of a major manufacturer often noticeably alters a small market segment. This is precisely what is expected to happen with the iPhone Fold in 2026.

The market for foldable smartphones is growing slowly but remains a niche segment dominated so far by Samsung and Google. Many have been waiting for years for Apple to release a foldable device. Analysts expect the market to gain significant momentum with Apple's entry. IDC's latest assessment provides figures that confirm this impression and shows what role the iPhone Fold could play in the global smartphone market in 2026.

Market share and revenue forecasts

IDC expects the iPhone Fold to achieve a market share of over 22 percent among foldable smartphones in its first year of sales. Despite the relatively small number of units sold, the device is projected to account for 34 percent of revenue in the foldable segment. This is primarily due to the planned starting price of around $2,400, which clearly positions the model in the premium segment.

With Apple's entry into the market, the entire foldable phone market is expected to grow by around 30 percent by 2026. The launch of the Samsung Galaxy Z Trifold, expected in January 2026, could provide an additional boost. Even though foldable devices will remain a niche market, they are important revenue drivers for many manufacturers because their average selling price is about three times higher than that of traditional smartphones.

The anticipated turning point in the foldable segment

IDC analyst Francisco Jeronimo describes the first foldable iPhone as a potential game-changer for the entire segment. When Apple enters a product category, interest among the general public typically increases. Similar effects have been observed with tablets, smartwatches, and wireless in-ear headphones. The iPhone Fold is also expected to raise awareness of the device category and bring foldables more into focus.

Despite growing interest, IDC says the segment remains a niche market, but one of significant economic importance. The high average price makes foldable models particularly attractive to manufacturers, even if unit sales remain lower compared to conventional smartphones.

Design and technical orientation

Rumors suggest the iPhone Fold will be released in fall 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro models. The device is said to have a book-like design that opens horizontally, creating an inner display similar in size to an iPad mini.

The current dimensions cited in the reports are approximately 5.5 inches when closed and around 7.8 inches when unfolded. Apple has been working for some time to minimize or completely eliminate the crease in the display. A reinforced hinge is intended to address this issue and could ensure that the iPhone Fold is among the first devices without a visible crease.

The focus is likely on a high-quality mix of materials, tight integration with iOS, and an optimized display for multitasking. The goal is a device that functions like a regular smartphone in everyday use, but offers more space for content and work when unfolded.

The iPhone Fold as a catalyst for a more visible segment

With the iPhone Fold, 2026 could be a year that fundamentally changes the foldable smartphone market. The expected market share of over 22 percent, the revenue share of 34 percent, and the anticipated very high starting price demonstrate the role the device is expected to play in the premium segment. At the same time, these forecasts illustrate just how much influence Apple can exert on the market.

If the iPhone Fold actually appears with a large inner display, a sophisticated hinge, and ideally no visible crease, it's likely to be more than just a new model in Apple's product line. It could become a device that makes the entire category of foldable smartphones more visible, relevant, and attractive. (Image: mariakray / DepositPhotos.com)