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The smartphone market experienced its steepest decline in the third quarter, with Apple emerging as the least affected. According to IDC, the iPhone is now only half a million units behind Samsung in the top spot. The market research firm paints a bleak picture for the rest of the industry.
Preliminary figures from IDC, released on October 14, show a 22.0 percent decline in global smartphone shipments to 255.3 million units. According to IDC, this is the steepest drop ever recorded in a single quarter. Apple shipped 57.3 million iPhones, achieving a 22.4 percent market share. Two days earlier, Counterpoint had already reported a record iPhone share for the same quarter, despite a 20 percent market contraction.
Key Facts at a Glance
- Global smartphone shipments fell by 22.0 percent to 255.3 million in the third quarter of 2026, according to IDC.
- Apple loses 4.0 percent, the least among the five largest manufacturers, with its share rising from 18.2 to 22.4 percent.
- Samsung remains narrowly in the lead with 57.8 million devices; the gap to Apple is 0.5 million.
- Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo each lose around 30 percent or more.
- IDC sees the storage crisis as the main cause and expects a recovery no earlier than 2028.
A market at a record low, Apple almost at the top
According to IDC, the five largest manufacturers together account for almost three-quarters of the market. Apple is the only one of them that experienced only a slight decline: 2.4 million fewer iPhones than in the same quarter last year, while the overall market shrank by 72 million devices.
| Manufacturer | Q3 2026 | Portion | Q3 2025 | Portion | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsung | 57.8 million. | 22,6 % | 61.4 million. | 18,7 % | -5.8 % |
| Apple | 57.3 million. | 22,4 % | 59.7 million. | 18,2 % | -4.0 % |
| Xiaomi | 30.7 million. | 12,0 % | 43.4 million. | 13,2 % | -29.2 % |
| OPPO | 25.6 million. | 10,0 % | 39.1 million. | 11,9 % | -34.5 % |
| vivo | 19.1 million. | 7,5 % | 27.9 million. | 8,5 % | -31.5 % |
| Other | 64.8 million. | 25,4 % | 96.0 million. | 29,3 % | -32.5 % |
| In total | 255.3 million. | 100 % | 327.3 million. | 100 % | -22.0 % |
Apple's share thus increases by 4.2 percentage points, Samsung's by 3.9. The growth of both market leaders comes from the slump of other manufacturers, not from their own growth: Both are shipping fewer devices than a year ago.
Two market researchers, one picture
IDC and Counterpoint both measure shipments to retailers, not sales to end customers. Their third-quarter figures are very similar.
| IDC | Counterpoint | |
|---|---|---|
| Total market | -22.0 % | -20 % |
| Samsung | 22,6 % | 23 % |
| Apple | 22,4 % | 22 % |
| Xiaomi | 12,0 % | 10 % |
Both analysts see Samsung slightly ahead of Apple. Counterpoint attributed Apple's decline to the fact that only the Pro models were released in the fall, while the regular iPhone 18 isn't expected until spring 2027. IDC, on the other hand, cites Apple's strong premium product line as the sole reason for its gains.
Storage costs are driving the decline
IDC attributes the decline to the memory crisis. Prices for memory chips are said to have risen by around 350 percent since last year. While the increase is slowing, it remained in the low double-digit percentage range in the third quarter, after previously rising by roughly 50 to 100 percent per quarter. Nabila Popal, Senior Research Director at IDC, believes the worst is yet to come.
According to IDC, manufacturers are increasingly passing on costs to customers, who are consequently keeping their devices for longer. Chinese brands are under particular pressure. IDC does not expect the market to recover until 2028 at the earliest.
Premium offers protection, but not against higher prices
I consider the result logical. IDC sees Chinese brands under particular pressure and Apple supported by its premium range, and that's exactly how the losses are distributed in the table: Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo lose around a third, Apple and Samsung only a small portion.
The crisis hasn't left Apple unscathed. The iPhone 18 Pro costs from €1,449 in Germany, €150 more than its predecessor; the Pro Max carries the same price increase. In the US, it was $100. The fact that Apple is expected to pay significantly more for storage in 2027 doesn't suggest that this trend will reverse for the regular iPhone 18 this spring.
If you're planning to buy a new smartphone this year anyway, IDC recommends looking for deals during the Christmas quarter. The market researchers anticipate permanently higher costs for manufacturers by 2027.
A quarter with a significant impact
With a lead of 0.5 million devices, Apple is within reach of first place. The iPhone Duo will be added this quarter, while the regular iPhone 18 is still missing.
Do you expect the iPhone to overtake Samsung in the Christmas quarter – or does Apple simply lack a suitable device without a base model? Share your prediction in the comments.
