Apple stock: KeyBanc sees Keynote as a risk to the share price

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Two days before the iPhone launch, an analyst firm has issued an unusually pessimistic forecast. KeyBanc Capital Markets considers the event a negative trigger – and has set its price target lower than any other firm this year.

On Wednesday, September 9th, Apple will unveil the iPhone 18 Pro, the iPhone 18 Pro Max, and, for the first time, a foldable model. What buyers can expect is outlined in the overview of the Apple event on September 9th. However, the situation is different for investors: KeyBanc Capital Markets, in an analyst note obtained by Investing.com, explains why this particular event could weigh on the stock. The note was published on September 6th.

Key Facts at a Glance

• KeyBanc rates Apple as "Underweight" with a price target of $250.
• This is the lowest value among all the price targets we have recorded this year.
• The company expects to produce around 80 million iPhones over two quarters, compared to approximately 91 million in the same period last year.
• KeyBanc expects a price increase of $150 for the iPhone 18 Pro and $200 for the Pro Max.
• All figures mentioned are dollar forecasts and say nothing about prices in German-speaking countries.

Two paths, both of which attract criticism

The core of the argument is a dilemma. According to KeyBanc, Apple is under pressure on its gross margin and has two options for responding. One option would be a broad price increase across its entire product range. This would support the margin but reduce sales volume and trigger a price shock among consumers.

The other approach would be a selective increase only for individual models. This protects demand, but according to this interpretation, it focuses more attention on margins – and leaves open the question of whether further increases will follow later.

Both options, therefore, offer investors something to criticize. The firm sees precisely this as the risk to the share price around the date.

Underweight rating and a price target of $250

KeyBanc confirms its "Underweight" rating and a price target of $250. The stock price itself is listed at $324.96. There is a difference of approximately 23 percent between the two figures – the bank therefore expects a significant decline, not just a temporary dip around the event.

Compared to the other houses we have recorded since the beginning of the year, this is a downward outlier:

Jefferies held the previous lowest price at $263.66, while Redburn marked the upper end at $400. The difference between the firms is therefore $150 – for the same stock and largely the same facts.

Fewer units, higher average price

KeyBanc expects approximately 80 million iPhone 18 series units to be manufactured in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 and the first quarter of 2027 combined. In the same period of the previous year, the figure was around 91 million. This represents a decline of just over twelve percent, or eleven million devices.

The company cites not demand, but the product cycle as the main reason: a base model iPhone 18 is simply not available at this stage. Higher prices and a more premium model mix are intended to partially compensate for the lower sales volumes.

Specifically, KeyBanc models a price increase of $150 for the iPhone 18 Pro, bringing it to $1,249, $200 for the Pro Max, bringing it to $1,399, and a starting price of $2,199 for the foldable iPhone Ultra. These figures align with the pricing scenarios already circulating before the keynote.

The pattern surrounding iPhone announcements

Part of the warning is based on statistics rather than forecasts. According to KeyBanc's analysis, Apple stock lost an average of 0.72 percent on the day of an iPhone announcement over the past five years. Five trading days later, the average decline was 1.22 percent.

These are moderate movements, and a five-year average says nothing about a single event. A similar pattern was recently observed outside of iPhone season, when the stock declined after WWDC – in that case, following significantly more optimistic analyst opinions.

Why the dollar premiums prove nothing here

All prices mentioned are model calculations in US dollars, excluding taxes. Apple sets its own prices for German-speaking countries, and these prices are subject to VAT and exchange rate adjustments. Therefore, a surcharge of $150 in the US cannot be directly translated into a euro amount – and whether it will actually arrive in that amount here is another question entirely.

The only certainty is the date: The keynote begins at 10 a.m. local time on the US West Coast, which is 7 p.m. CEST. Those who want to watch it live can find instructions in our guide to streaming it. German prices will be available in the Apple Store immediately afterward.

An outlier that nevertheless shows something

A single price target at the lower end of a $150 range is not very meaningful in itself – especially since the same set of facts leads other firms to twice as optimistic figures. The note is interesting for another reason: it describes a dilemma that exists independently of the prevailing opinion on the price.

Apple is struggling to control storage and manufacturing costs, and both solutions to its tight margins come at a price. For you as a buyer, the question isn't whether it will get more expensive, but where – across all models or specifically the top-of-the-line model. The answer will be revealed in Wednesday's keynote, and that's the truly relevant information, not the stock price the day after.

Do you expect Apple to raise prices across the board – or will it specifically target the foldable model while the Pro and Pro Max remain largely unchanged? Let us know your expectations for Wednesday in the comments.

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