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Three weeks before its launch, the first sales forecast for Apple's foldable iPhone has been released. Apple expects to sell six million devices by the end of the year – a small number for an iPhone, but a lot for a foldable. Whether that number is reached, however, will depend not on the retailer, but on the factory floor.
Market research firm Counterpoint Research predicts that Apple will sell around six million iPhone Duo units in 2026. Senior analyst Ivan Lam cited this forecast in a Bloomberg report. It is the first estimate from a market research firm regarding sales of the first foldable iPhone.
The device will be available in stores on October 23rd, starting at €2,299 in Germany. All specifications, prices, and release dates for the iPhone Duo have been known since its unveiling on September 9th. Counterpoint's forecast therefore covers a period of approximately ten weeks.
Key Takeaways
- Counterpoint expects around six million iPhone Duos to be sold in 2026, a figure that fits the foldable segment better than Apple's usual iPhone sales figures.
- According to Counterpoint, whether that number will be reached depends on how quickly Apple can ramp up production.
- Market research firm IDC expects 22.9 million foldable devices to be shipped this year – without the Duo, the segment would have shrunk.
- According to Counterpoint, the iPhone 18 Pro series launched 12 percent stronger in China than the iPhone 17 Pro series, with Apple's market share there at 33 percent.
Six million in just over ten weeks
There are 70 days between the sales launch on October 23rd and the end of the year. According to Lam, six million devices sold in this period is a figure typical for the niche segment of foldable phones, not for Apple's regular smartphone sales.
The crucial caveat, which Counterpoint immediately identifies, is that the number depends on how well Apple ramps up production of the new device. This is precisely where the current bottleneck lies. Reports indicate that final assembly of the iPhone Duo is only achieving around 60 percent yield, and as early as mid-September, there were concerns about limited availability for pre-orders.
How the number fits with previous figures
Since spring, figures on the production of the foldable iPhone have been circulating. However, these figures measure different things: order quantities from suppliers, assembled devices, specifications for retailers, and devices sold are not the same.
| Source | Info | What is being measured |
|---|---|---|
| Ming-Chi Kuo | 7 to 8 million in the second half of 2026 | installed devices |
| Supply chain reports | approximately 10 million for 2026 | Quantity requested from suppliers |
| Jiemian | over 5 million | Sales target for retailers |
| Counterpoint | approximately 6 million in 2026 | sold devices |
The new forecast is therefore slightly above the target set by Jiemian for retailers and below the assembly volumes expected by Kuo. This does not create a contradiction between the figures, as each number describes a different stage between the factory and the customer.
Without the duo, the foldable market would shrink
Market research firm IDC forecasts 22.9 million foldable smartphone shipments this year, a 13 percent increase. According to IDC, the segment would have shrunk without the iPhone Duo. TrendForce reached the same conclusion in early September.
The figures from IDC and Counterpoint cannot be directly compared. IDC counts shipped devices, Counterpoint counts sales, and both companies use their own methodologies.
Strong start for the Pro series in China
In addition to the Duo forecast, Counterpoint provides figures for the launch of the iPhone 18 Pro series in China. Initial sales were 12 percent higher than those of the iPhone 17 Pro series. However, the overall market there shrank by 17 percent year-on-year during the summer, primarily at the expense of Chinese manufacturers.
According to Counterpoint, this gives Apple a 33 percent market share in China. Typically, Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, and Apple hold similarly large shares in the Chinese market. Lam attributes part of the reason to increased component costs: many Chinese manufacturers have raised the prices of their flagship models by more than $200, making the iPhone comparatively more attractive.
There's also a special case in Apple's lineup. This fall, only the Pro models were released; there was no new standard model. Anyone wanting a new model had to opt for the more expensive devices.
Why six million is not a disappointment
I consider six million a solid figure, given current manufacturing capacity. All previous estimates have ranged between five and ten million, and this new forecast falls within that range. The fact that the number seems small is due to the comparison with a typical iPhone launch, not the device itself.
The real unknown factor is the yield in final assembly, and Counterpoint explicitly links its own forecast to the ramp-up of production. For buyers in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, who are part of the first sales wave, this is an argument for preparing their pre-order starting October 12th, rather than hoping for an easing of the delivery situation.
Do you think selling six million Duos in just over ten weeks is realistic if production is stuck at 60 percent yield? Share your prediction in the comments.
