India threatens Apple with a $38 billion fine Apfelpatient

Apple faces a potential $38 billion fine in India after refusing to hand over financial data to the Indian competition authority. It would be by far the largest antitrust fine ever.

Apple and India are locked in a tense dispute: First, the Indian government dropped its requirement for pre-installed apps, and now the company faces a record fine. The Competition Commission of India (CCI) found Apple guilty of abusing its dominant market position – and Apple is refusing to provide the financial data necessary to calculate the penalty. The figure currently circulating is staggering: up to $38 billion.

This case is one of the many antitrust lawsuits Apple has faced worldwide for years. The core of the dispute is the same everywhere: iPhone apps can only be purchased through the official App Store. Apple sets the commissions, and developers have no choice. Many countries see this as an abuse of a dominant market position. But the Indian case has a unique feature that sets it apart from the rest.

The Indian peculiarity

When the proceedings began in 2021, Apple had a market share of just 4 percent in India. Now it's around 9 percent – still significantly less than in the US or Europe. Apple therefore argues that it doesn't have a dominant market position in India. The CCI disagrees, pointing to the iOS ecosystem as a separate market in which Apple is naturally the sole point of contact.

Apple has also filed a parallel lawsuit challenging the underlying law, requesting a stay of execution until that case is resolved. For this reason, the company is refusing to release the requested financial data. The CCI, in turn, needs this data to determine the final penalty amount.

The $38 billion question

According to a Reuters report, the CCI announced that Apple has not submitted any financial data or a statement regarding the proceedings since October 2024. The agency has now announced it will expedite the process and set a final hearing date of May 21. Apple has two weeks until then to submit the requested documents.

Apple itself estimates the potential fine at up to $38 billion – based on the company's global annual revenue. That would be by far the largest antitrust fine in history. According to an antitrust lawyer quoted in the Reuters article, Apple risks losing the opportunity to appeal the fine if it does not submit the requested financial data.

How realistic is that sum?

The $38 billion figure is based on the theoretical maximum – the highest possible percentage of global revenue allowed under Indian antitrust law. In practice, other countries with similar regulations have never imposed fines anywhere near that amount. The EU, for example, can theoretically impose fines of up to 10 percent of global revenue for antitrust violations – but has never used this limit in Apple's case.

The highest antitrust fine against Apple to date was around €2 billion, imposed by the EU in the Spotify case. Even if the CCI were to impose the maximum fine, it would be on a completely new scale – and would almost certainly lead to lengthy legal battles in which Apple would likely exhaust all available legal avenues.

Apple in India: What happens next?

May 21st is the crucial date. By then, Apple must either provide the financial data or accept that the CCI will decide without this information – risking a significantly higher penalty. For Apple, the strategic question is whether the continued obstruction will exacerbate the potential damage or whether the ongoing lawsuit against the law itself might be successful.

For iPhone users in India, the dispute will not change anything in the short term. However, in the long term, a successful outcome of the CCI investigation could force Apple to relax its App Store guidelines in India – similar to what already happened in the EU after the Digital Markets Act. (Image: Shutterstock / Skrypnykov Dmytro)