Apple stock: Morgan Stanley expects new momentum

Apple is one of those companies that is repeatedly in the spotlight on the financial markets. Sometimes it's the sales figures for new iPhone models, sometimes political conditions, sometimes innovations in the software and services sectors. 2025 presents a mixed picture: On the one hand, weaker share price performance so far this year, on the other, new impetus that could drive the share price up again.

Apple shares recently gained 15 percent after presenting strong results for the third quarter of 2025 and a measure leading to tariff relief. Nevertheless, the stock is down about five percent since the beginning of the year. Morgan Stanley is optimistic about the situation, writing in a recent note (via CNBC ) that the "Apple story could be a turnaround." Analyst Erik Woodring points to a combination of rising demand, production adjustments, opportunities in the field of artificial intelligence, and declining geopolitical risks.

iPhone sales as a decisive factor

Demand for iPhones plays a key role in the assessment. Morgan Stanley's China team has revised its forecast for iPhone production in the September quarter upward by eight percent. This is due to the better sales figures in June, which exceeded expectations. As a result, inventories in the distribution channel are lower than usual, opening up additional sales opportunities. The focus is particularly on the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro Max models, where production figures have been increased by two million units each. The adjustments are already reflected in the current forecasts, but Woodring sees potential for a further increase in the December quarter. Morgan Stanley currently expects 78 million units to be sold during the holiday season. If demand for the iPhone 17 turns out to be stronger than expected, the forecast could be revised upward.

Apple Intelligence remains a risk with opportunities

In addition to hardware, Morgan Stanley also sees developments surrounding Apple Intelligence as a key focus. The delayed introduction of new AI features, such as a revamped version of Siri, could weigh on sales in the short term. In the long term, however, this technology could stimulate new demand for both iPhones and Apple's service offerings. Woodring emphasizes that Apple is only one AI partnership or acquisition away from a major breakthrough. Such a move could provide additional momentum, especially in the global competition for artificial intelligence.

Less pressure from geopolitical risks

Geopolitical conditions also play a role in the current valuation. While Section 232 tariffs were considered a significant risk factor for Apple in the past, Morgan Stanley now considers this issue a "non-event." This has given the company greater planning certainty, which investors should view positively.

Apple between weakness and new strength

Apple will be in a transition phase in 2025. Despite its recent recovery, the stock still shows weaknesses, but at the same time, new opportunities are emerging. Stronger iPhone sales, a potential production increase in the December quarter, and the prospect of a successful launch of Apple Intelligence could bring about a turnaround. In addition, geopolitical risks are currently less significant. This means that Apple remains a stock that investors will closely monitor in the coming quarters. (Image: Shutterstock / Sudarsan Thobias)

Disclaimer: No recommendation for investments

This article does not constitute financial or investment advice. The information contained herein is for journalistic and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.