Apple Q3 2026: What analysts expect from the quarterly results

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Apple will present its quarterly figures for April to June 2026 on July 30 – the last earnings call under Tim Cook. Wall Street expects a record for the June quarter, but memory prices are now noticeably squeezing margins.

The previous quarter set the bar high: In the March quarter, revenue climbed to a record $111.2 billion, and earnings per share rose by 22 percent to $2.01. Now the question is whether Apple can maintain this pace as component costs rise. The timing also coincides with the leadership change: On September 1st, Cook will hand over the reins to John Ternus and become Executive Chairman – making July 30th his last earnings report as CEO.

What Apple itself promises

Apple already outlined its expectations in its Q2 report: CFO Kevan Parekh projected revenue growth of 14 to 17 percent year-over-year for the third fiscal quarter. Based on the $94.04 billion from Q3 2025, this equates to a range of approximately $107.2 to $110.0 billion. Apple estimated its gross margin at 47.5 to 48.5 percent and operating expenses at $18.8 to $19.1 billion.

Analysts' consensus forecasts are revenue of around $109 billion and earnings per share of approximately $1.89 – nearly 20 percent higher than the $1.57 in the same quarter last year. This would place Apple comfortably within its own target range. The company has exceeded earnings estimates for the past eight consecutive quarters.

iPhone remains the foundation

The iPhone is driving Apple's success – and is expected to do so again in the June quarter. In the previous quarter, iPhone sales reached a record high of approximately $57 billion for a March quarter, a 22 percent increase; CEO Cook described the iPhone 17 series as the most popular in the company's history. According to Counterpoint Research, Apple achieved a record 20 percent share of the global smartphone market in the second calendar quarter, while the overall market shrank by 11 percent. This growth was also driven by Greater China, where sales increased by 28 percent in the previous quarter. Customer loyalty also remains exceptionally high: iPhone loyalty recently climbed to 87 percent.

For Q3, analysts expect a typical seasonal slowdown after the launch quarter, not a collapse. The uncertainty lies in the supply chains: Apple has indicated bottlenecks for both iPhone and Mac – especially for advanced chips – while increased memory prices are primarily impacting margins.

Services as a reliable growth engine

The Services division is Apple's main revenue driver, delivering an all-time high of nearly $31 billion in the previous quarter, representing growth of 16 percent. Apple projected a similar growth rate for Q3, adjusted for currency effects. An early data point supports this: According to an analysis by Bank of America, App Store revenue increased by 3.7 percent year-over-year in the first 33 days of the quarter.

Growth is driven by the Apple One subscription business, rising App Store revenue, and ongoing Formula 1 broadcasts on Apple TV. A paid Apple Intelligence subscription could provide additional support for the segment in the medium term, once the platform is more mature – it won't play a role in Q3.

Mac: First full post from the MacBook Neo

The Mac segment remains a shaky prospect. In the March quarter, Mac revenue rose 6 percent to $8.4 billion, with demand exceeding supply for several models. The June quarter also marks the first full reporting period for the MacBook Neo, Apple's most affordable notebook ever. Higher unit sales suggest a positive trend, but the Neo's lower price point is likely to dampen revenue in the segment, even with increased sales.

Apple itself identified the Mac mini, Mac Studio, and MacBook Neo as being in particularly short supply and expects demand to exceed supply for several more months. Analysts therefore remain cautiously optimistic about the Mac.

Storage costs and margins under pressure

The central risk to this balance sheet is not revenue, but costs. Memory prices have risen sharply across the industry; market analysts at Counterpoint describe the memory shortage as the dominant burden on the entire smartphone industry, with challenging conditions expected through 2026 and possibly 2027. Parekh announced that the effect will intensify beyond the June quarter. In addition, tariffs on imported hardware continue to pose a problem.

Apple's reported gross margin of 47.5 to 48.5 percent, while still at a historically high level, marks a decline compared to the 49.3 percent of the March quarter. This downward move - and the question of how long the cost pressure will last - is likely to be the focus of most analyst questions during the earnings call.

Analyst sentiment

Wall Street remains largely constructive: Across the roughly 47 bureaus covering the stock, the consensus is "Buy," with an average price target of approximately $318. Ahead of the earnings release, the stock was trading at around $333 – near its record high and thus already above this average target. With a gain of roughly 17 percent since the beginning of the year, Apple is the strongest performer among the "Magnificent Seven" of 2026. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has set the highest target price at $400, based on his AI thesis; Morgan Stanley recently raised its target to $360, and Citigroup to $365. The lower end of the range is $215.

Not everyone shares the optimism: KeyBanc downgraded the stock to "Underweight" on July 14, with a price target of $250. Analyst Brandon Nispel cited declining iPhone production, rising device prices, reduced mobile network subsidies in the US, and a historically high valuation. Two factors are crucial for the outlook beyond the June quarter: the expected [unclear] for the fall. iPhone Ultra, which Morgan Stanley says could generate $40 to $60 billion within 18 months, as well as a Price increase announced by Cook, which should support profits in the coming quarters.

Apple Q3 2026: What Wall Street expects

Expectations are high, but not unrealistic. Apple's own guidance signals strength, and the consensus estimate of around $109 billion would be comfortably within the target range. Crucially, the iPhone will perform well despite supply bottlenecks, whether services maintain their mid-teens growth trajectory, and how much the margin actually declines. This is also Tim Cook's last appearance as CEO before Ternus takes over in September – the conference call on July 30 at 11:00 PM CEST is therefore likely to be more exciting than a typical earnings presentation. (Image: Shutterstock / Zhuo Wen Chen)