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The US smartphone market saw a five percent drop in sales in the second quarter, and the reason isn't solely consumer demand. Rising memory prices are putting pressure on manufacturers, and a market research firm expects Apple to follow suit in the fall. This expectation contradicts previous reports about the iPhone 18 series.
Memory prices have been driving the industry for months, as data center operators buy up all available RAM. This development is already dividing the smartphone market into two camps, as evidenced by July: those who buy in large quantities survive, while smaller players come under pressure.
A new quarterly report now provides figures from the US market – and an outlook for the autumn business, which directly affects Apple.
Key Facts at a Glance
- US smartphone sales fell by five percent in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
- Apple, Samsung, Motorola and Google together lost four percent, while the rest of the market collapsed by 45 percent.
- Devices under $100 lost 64 percent of their sales because manufacturers increased their prices or discontinued them entirely.
- A price increase for the iPhone 18 series is expected for the third quarter – but it has not been confirmed.
- Previous reports on the iPhone 18 series mostly assumed stable prices.
Where the market weakened in the second quarter
According to a report by Counterpoint Research, total sales in the US fell by five percent compared to the same quarter last year. The company cites two parallel developments as the reasons: increased prices for fuel and other goods as a result of the conflicts in the Middle East, and storage costs driven up by demand from large data center operators.
The distribution of this decline is the real finding. The four largest suppliers lost a combined four percent, while all other manufacturers together lost 45 percent.
| Segment | Change compared to the same quarter of the previous year |
|---|---|
| Total US market | -5 percent |
| Apple, Samsung, Motorola, Google together | -4 percent |
| Other manufacturers | -45 percent |
| Devices under $100 | -64 percent |
| Price range: $200 to $300 | roughly tripled |
| Prepaid segment overall | -11 percent |
The growth in the $200-$300 price range isn't driven by new demand. It's happening because models from lower price brackets have moved up – Motorola has raised the prices of several G-Series devices, and Samsung increased the price of the Galaxy A17 by $50 in July.
Why small businesses are hit harder
Large manufacturers can leverage their purchasing power to secure storage quotas that smaller brands simply cannot be offered at reasonable costs. This very mechanism has recently proven limited even for Apple itself, but it still works compared to smaller providers.
For the lower market segment, this means a displacement effect. White-label devices from mobile network operators are losing their price advantage because the gap to the entry-level models of the major brands has narrowed. Several smaller providers had already left the US market by 2025 or scaled back their operations.
Apple's stability in this environment fits the picture of recent months: The company holds a 65 percent share in the premium segment and does not participate in the price categories that are causing the slump anyway.
What to expect from the iPhone 18 series
Counterpoint expects average prices to continue rising in the third quarter, specifically due to Apple. The company anticipates higher prices for the iPhone 18 models, noting that Apple historically accounts for over half of US smartphone sales in the third quarter.
According to this report, the extent to which this will affect sales depends on the mobile network operators. As long as the network operators continue to include the devices in contracts free of charge or at a near-free price, sales should remain stable – a strong switching cycle among iPhone 15 users is expected anyway.
With previous products, Apple has left iPhone prices untouched in the US, while other devices such as Macs, iPads and the Vision Pro have become more expensive.
For half a year it sounded different
This expectation contradicts what has been reported about the iPhone 18 series since the beginning of the year. In March, it was said that Apple was not planning a price increase, while in the spring there was talk of a deliberately aggressive pricing strategy despite the storage costs.
Only since the end of June has the opposing view emerged, according to which the prices for the iPhone 18 Pro and the foldable model are expected to rise. Both interpretations remain side by side, and neither originates from Apple.
The contradiction cannot currently be resolved. The reports from the spring were based on supplier and planning status, while the more recent expectation derives from cost developments – both could be true if Apple has changed its plans during the year.
Why the calculation looks different in this country
The report describes only the US market, and its central buffer does not exist in this form in German-speaking countries. The fact that a current iPhone is delivered to the home virtually free of charge via the mobile provider is an American sales model; here, the device price is spread over installments or a tariff surcharge, but remains visible.
A price increase thus has a more direct impact. While US customers might not even notice an increase because the network operator absorbs it, here in Germany it appears in the shopping cart.
In addition, Apple already raised prices in Europe in June – but only for Macs, iPads and the Vision Pro, not for the iPhone.
What's at stake in September
We expect a price increase across the entire range, though smaller for the base models than for the Pro versions. The iPhone 17 started at €949 in Germany, the Pro models at €1,299 – there's more room for price increases, and the starting price remains the figure that appears in every keynote slide and comparison.
The fact that there is now speculation about an adjustment even for the current iPhone 17 models suggests that the lower price points will not remain unaffected. Storage costs apply across the entire range, not just the expensive models.
For you, this mainly means that waiting is hardly worthwhile. If the price increase is lower than expected, you haven't gained anything; if it's significant, the previous model won't be any cheaper in stores – the same component costs apply there as well.
The question will only become definitively settled after the keynote address. Until then, price development remains a derivation from component costs – well-founded, but not a definitive announcement from Cupertino. (Image: Apple)
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