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Apple's insider trading rules previously focused on securities. Now, they include a clause affecting Polymarket and similar platforms – and it goes further than traditional insider trading law. Apple employees are no longer permitted to use internal information to bet on future events, even if this wouldn't legally constitute insider trading.
Apple filed its annual report for fiscal year 2026 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on November 3, one day after its fourth-quarter results. The updated insider trading policy, dated October 2026, is attached.
For the first time, the document includes a dedicated section on prediction markets. The term was not used in the previously published version from September 2024. These platforms allow investors to bet on the outcome of future events, from elections to corporate news.
Key Facts at a Glance
- Apple prohibits the use of confidential information for betting and contracts on prediction markets.
- The prohibition also applies even if the activity does not constitute insider trading under current law.
- Confidential information about suppliers, manufacturers, customers and mobile network operators is also recorded.
- The paragraph does not prohibit betting as such; it aims at the use of internal knowledge.
- The policy applies to all Apple staff and does not specify any regional restrictions.
What the new paragraph regulates
The paragraph is subject to insider trading restrictions and follows directly after the rules for trading securities of other companies. Apple phrases it as follows:
Do not participate in ‚prediction markets’ or similar platforms to bet on, trade, buy or sell contracts on, or otherwise enter into event contracts regarding the outcome of future events, if doing so involves using confidential Apple information […] about Apple or any other company […] that you obtained in connection with your work at Apple.
Sharing is also forbidden: Such information must not be shared with others who might become active in these markets. Ultimately, Apple draws the decisive line:
This prohibition applies regardless of whether the activity constitutes insider trading or securities trading under applicable law.
The policy applies to board members, executives, employees, independent contractors, and consultants, including family members living in the same household. Violations can result in disciplinary action, up to and including termination and the repayment of stock options.
What has changed compared to 2024
The 2025 annual report still referred to the 2024 version; the current version is therefore the first newly published version in over two years. A comparison of the two documents reveals, in addition to the new paragraph, another significant addition.
| # | Version September 2024 | Version October 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Prediction markets | not mentioned | separate paragraph with prohibition |
| Benchmark for prediction markets | – | all confidential Apple information, not just essential information |
| After being eliminated | no separate section | Insider trading bans remain in effect until the information is public or no longer material. |
Why the term „confidential” goes so much further
Traditional insider trading laws, as well as Apple's other prohibitions on trading insider information, are based on material, non-public information. According to Apple's guidelines, materiality is defined as what an investor would consider important or what is likely to significantly influence the share price.
The new paragraph uses „Apple Confidential Information” instead. The definition is found in the Business Conduct Policy and includes all non-public materials or information about past, present, or future products and services, explicitly including sales, pricing, operations, sources of supply, finances, and marketing plans. It also includes confidential information from customers, partners, and suppliers.
Apple-related topics have long been tradable on such platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi led markets for Tim Cook's successor, and Polymarket also led markets for what John Ternus would say at WWDC.
Prediction markets are coming under pressure
A recent case involving Google made headlines. In May, the US Attorney's Office in New York indicted a software engineer living in Switzerland. He is alleged to have used confidential data from his employer on Polymarket, investing approximately $2.75 million and making a profit of about $1.2 million. These are currently allegations that would need to be proven in court.
Anomalies are also increasing on the platforms themselves. According to Reuters, Kalshi reviewed over 400 suspicious trades by mid-May, more than twice as many as in the entire previous year. The agency based its findings on two people familiar with the matter.
Such a rule has recently become rare in the insider trading guidelines of listed companies. In June, the law firm Goodwin found only one of hundreds of insider trading guidelines that explicitly addressed prediction markets.
The difference to a complete ban
I believe the term „confidential” is the real intensification. A product name, a case color, or a word from a keynote barely moves the stock price, but would be worth real money in a prediction market. This sale closes precisely that gap, without Apple having to clarify whether the information was material to investors.
It's not a complete ban, however. The policy described by Goodwin generally prohibits participation in markets for one's own company, while Apple's ban is tied to the use of confidential information. In case of a dispute, Apple must therefore establish the connection to internal knowledge. Apple also takes legal action against the disclosure of internal information, for example in the ongoing lawsuit against Jon Prosser regarding the iOS 26 leak.
For German-speaking countries, the rule is not merely theoretical, as it contains no regional restrictions. At the same time, such platforms are themselves a topic of discussion here: According to the Joint Gambling Authority of the German states, betting on political or economic events is not permitted in Germany. In June, nine European regulatory bodies, including those from Germany and Switzerland, jointly warned of the risks. The Swiss gambling authority blocks access to unauthorized foreign providers.
Is it enough for you if Apple only prohibits the use of confidential information – or should employees not be allowed to bet on their own employer at all? Let us know in the comments where you would draw the line.
