Why Gemini could limit Apple's AI Apfelpatient

Apple is building its new AI on Google's Gemini – and a well-known analyst sees this as the crucial question of today's WWDC keynote. It's not the short-term stock market reaction that matters, but whether Apple can create better experiences with third-party models than their developers.

This year's WWDC keynote takes place today, Monday, and is expected to be heavily focused on Apple Intelligence and a completely revamped Siri. The foundation is particularly intriguing: Apple is using Google's Gemini as the technical basis for the new Siri and other AI features. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo therefore shifts the focus away from the immediate market reaction and towards a more fundamental question – one that could determine Apple's AI narrative for the coming years.

The actual test of the keynote

For Kuo, the true test of the keynote lies not in the short-term reaction of the stock market, but in whether Apple achieves better results with the same Gemini models than Google itself. This refers to more compelling AI applications, so-called agentic processes, and hybrid experiences that combine on-device and cloud computing. The redesigned Siri would be the most visible example of this.

If Apple succeeds in proving this, it supports the optimistic scenario for the company, according to Kuo. If it fails, an uncomfortable conclusion follows.

A blanket that Apple itself does not control

Should Apple fail to extract more performance from Gemini than Google, the upper limit of its own AI capabilities would be a model that Apple doesn't even control. Kuo thus contradicts the widespread expectation that Apple will automatically catch up on any potential AI deficit and ultimately come out on top.

This is precisely where the strategic urgency lies: relying on third-party models makes you dependent on a provider you don't control when it comes to peak performance. Apple's own approach to AI strategy must therefore prove itself precisely in refining this foundation.

Why the stock is unlikely to react much in the short term

Kuo sees little movement in the short term. He believes today's announcements are unlikely to have much impact on the share price in the second half of 2026; the positive trend will remain as long as the underlying narrative is intact. His recent supply chain audits also point to continued robust business performance through the end of the year – a fact that observers, in his estimation, are likely to interpret as meaning that Apple is already in an excellent position even without strong AI, and will be even better off with it.

According to other reports, Apple's long-term advantage may lie less in its models and more in its own hardware: thanks to its chips, the company can process more AI requests directly on the device instead of in the cloud. A recent record quarter confirmed that the financial figures support this narrative.

The real risk lies after 2026

Things will get more complicated in the long run. If Apple fails to outperform Google with Gemini, the stock wouldn't necessarily have to turn around, according to Kuo. However, the assumption that Apple will ultimately come out on top is increasingly under pressure. For him, the real reason to closely follow today's keynote is how long the optimistic narrative will hold up beyond 2026. (Image: Mojahid_Mottakin / DepositPhotos.com)