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The general consensus on the Apple vs. Epic Games case is that Apple will probably win, but Bloomberg journalist Mark Gurman explained today that it may not be that easy and Cupertino may have to make concessions.
Gurman argues that Apple could end up making some more concessions to developers to ward off similar lawsuits and antitrust investigations in the future. writes the journalist:
This week, it appears that Epic was unable to prove that the mandatory use of Apple's payment system constitutes an abuse of monopoly power, and the game developer has failed to demonstrate that Apple engaged in serious anticompetitive behavior. Epic's testimony doesn't appear to have moved the needle. An Apple representative said that Epic is spending its time in court on irrelevant issues and continues to call witnesses who are helpful to Apple's story.
Small Business Program: Apple has already made a concession
Still, Apple could still make some adjustments. Apple's biggest antitrust concession regarding the App Store was, of course, the about-face on the $301,000 fee. Apple has reduced it to $151,000 for $981,000 of developers through its Small Business Program, meaning only the very largest developers will pay the $301,000 commission rate. An obvious next step would be to follow Google's lead and expand eligibility.
Right now, the only developers who can pay less than $30 are those who didn't make more than a million dollars in revenue in the previous calendar year. It's easy to imagine the company following Google's lead and allowing this discount for the first $1 million in a calendar year for any developer, regardless of how much they earned the year before.
Another possibility would be for Apple to allow out-of-app payments, provided that in-app payments are also possible and that Apple retains its share of the latter.
Will Apple finally allow game streaming apps?
I think Apple and Epic could have resolved their differences without a lawsuit if Apple had simply allowed Epic to show its users that they can go to the Epic website to complete a VBucks purchase - as long as an option to purchase the items in the app remains.
Perhaps the biggest change Gurman envisions is Apple accepting that the gaming world has evolved. He writes:
For its gaming apps, the company could relax its ban on services that allow users to play different games within a single app, just as they can access multiple movies within a service like Netflix […] Cloud gaming has become almost the industry standard in 2021 and Apple's ban on such content apps is old school and could eventually drive hardcore gamers away from its own platform.
So the whole thing will certainly remain exciting. Nevertheless, it is at least certain that Apple will make further adjustments in favor of developers in the long term. (Photo by Unsplash / Caspar Camille Rubin)
