iPhone 18 Pro: Price fears possibly unfounded Apfelpatient

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Tim Cook recently warned of inevitable price increases – but a new analyst estimate dampens concerns about a drastic jump. Instead of several hundred dollars more, the iPhone 18 Pro could see a significantly lower price.

Few details surrounding a new iPhone are as hotly debated as the price – and the situation with the iPhone 18 Pro has been particularly confusing for weeks. On the one hand, there's the global shortage of memory chips, and on the other, public warnings from Cupertino about rising costs. A recent assessment from analysts now highlights a significantly more moderate scenario, fitting into the previously known pricing picture for the iPhone 18 Pro, which has recently shown relatively stable entry-level prices.

What the new estimate suggests

According to an analyst report from JP Morgan, the price increase for the iPhone 18 Pro series is likely to be lower than many fear. The report suggests an increase in the range of approximately $50 to $100, and in an optimistic scenario, even as low as $50. This would place the increase far below the more pessimistic forecasts that have been circulating recently.

According to the report, this is possible because Apple intends to offset the higher storage costs elsewhere. A key factor is the switch to its own modem: By relying more heavily on in-house wireless chips instead of purchased components, Apple can achieve savings that will mitigate some of the price pressure on RAM and storage. This assessment applies not only to the iPhone 18, but also to the previous and subsequent generations.

The grim interpretation of Cook's warning

The debate was sparked by an unusually candid statement from Apple CEO Tim Cook, who described price increases as inevitable. Cook explained, in essence, that the company had long tried to shield customers from the enormous cost increases, but the situation was no longer sustainable. The trigger is the shortage of RAM, fueled by the AI boom.

Elsewhere, a drastic scenario was derived from this statement: Based on Apple's typical margins and the expected markups for RAM, storage, and camera components, an estimate was made for a possible starting price of $1,399 or more – a significant jump from the $1,099 at which the iPhone 17 Pro launched in the US. This new, more optimistic assessment directly addresses precisely this concern.

What other voices expect

This moderate forecast is by no means alone. Ming-Chi Kuo had previously predicted that the base price of the iPhone 18 Pro would remain unchanged, with any price increases occurring only in the higher storage capacities. A similar assessment suggested that Apple might pursue a deliberately conservative pricing strategy despite the pressure on storage costs, in order to differentiate itself from increasingly expensive competitors in the premium segment. Against this backdrop, a price increase in the low double-digit dollar range seems more plausible than a price jump of several hundred dollars.

Expectation management as a possible strategy

The contrast between Cook's outright warning and the moderate analyst figures remains striking. One obvious interpretation: the advance announcement could be a deliberate attempt to manage expectations. By preparing customers for the worst, a comparatively small increase can ultimately lead to a positive surprise – a classic pattern where low expectations make the actual price adjustment seem less drastic. Whether this is the underlying strategy, or whether the cost situation is simply less dramatic than feared, will only become clear at the presentation in the fall.

Clarity will only come in September

As long as Apple doesn't announce official prices, any figure remains a guess. However, the latest estimate noticeably shifts expectations away from the nightmare scenario of a four-figure price increase and toward a more manageable adjustment. For price-conscious buyers, this is arguably the most important news of the past few days – even if final confirmation won't come until the keynote in the fall. (Image: Shutterstock / Pornprasit Panada)