Apple is reportedly lobbying the White House to be allowed to source RAM from the Chinese manufacturer CXMT – a supplier whose business dealings with US corporations are hampered by security concerns. The real driving force behind this is no longer a question of cost, but rather a supply gap in memory, which, according to a recent analyst forecast, is expected to widen further by 2027.
The global memory chip shortage has already noticeably disrupted Apple's product planning this year – from canceled memory options to bottlenecks across the Mac line, which Apple openly attributes to the enormous demand from AI data centers. A new assessment by analyst Ming-Chi Kuo now shifts the perspective: the pressure on Apple has moved from simply rising memory costs to a widening supply gap. And this gap is precisely the reason why Apple is lobbying in Washington to source memory chips from manufacturer CXMT, whose cooperation with US companies is hampered by a Pentagon security list.
Why the pressure is shifting on Apple
Kuo's latest industry assessment focuses on a shift: away from the question of cost and towards pure availability. According to his forecast, the imbalance between supply and demand for storage will continue to widen until 2027.
A key factor is the reallocation of capacity. Of the storage capacity planned for consumer electronics in 2026, estimates suggest that 15 to 20 percent will migrate to data centers in 2027 – and this share could increase further. Storage currently used in smartphones and laptops would thus be increasingly taken up by AI infrastructure.
Specific consequences for the A20 chip
How directly this impacts Apple is illustrated by a detail from Kuo's analysis of the upcoming A20 chip. Due to the tight supply of LPDDR memory – the energy-efficient RAM in mobile devices – Apple's actual order volume for A20 chips between the second half of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027 could be 10 to 20 percent below the original target. Kuo cautions, however, that part of this discrepancy could also be due to Apple's own over-ordering – that is, deliberately placing orders that were too high.
The A20 is the chip that, according to previous reports, will be reserved for the Pro models of the next iPhone generation, while the regular devices will retain the previous model. The fact that the chip supply for the iPhone 18 is under pressure underscores how deeply the memory shortage now extends to Apple's most important product line.
What CXMT could do for Apple – and what it couldn't
A second aspect concerns the viability of the lobbying strategy itself. CXMT states in its IPO prospectus that its own capacity is significantly below domestic demand in China. Kuo draws a sobering conclusion from this: Even if Apple's lobbying efforts were successful and the company were able to source DRAM from CXMT, this would not substantially reduce costs or close the supply gap.
Why is Apple still trying? Because the imbalance continues to widen, giving Apple every reason to secure an additional source of supply – even one that only mitigates the underlying problem instead of solving it. It's less about a groundbreaking solution and more about risk diversification.
The difference to the YMTC case of 2022
According to Kuo, this logic also explains why Apple is taking a significantly more proactive approach this time than in 2022, when the company audited the Chinese NAND manufacturer YMTC. Back then, the primary goal was to reduce the cost of NAND flash memory. With CXMT, however, the focus is on managing a supply risk for DRAM – the very memory whose scarcity is currently dominating the entire industry. The motivation has thus shifted from cost optimization to simply ensuring availability.
Why the timing depends on Tim Cook
Perhaps the most revealing point Kuo makes concerns the timing. Tim Cook is one of the few tech executives who can still move freely between Washington and Beijing – a bridging role that has become rare in the current geopolitical climate. Precisely for this reason, the matter will be better resolved before Cook steps down as CEO. The fact that Cook is making his approach to dealing with political decision-makers worldwide his main focus after the transition fits into this picture.
Kuo also reveals a less obvious mechanism: Even if the efforts were to fail, media coverage alone could give the market the impression that Apple had tried but was thwarted by US politics. This, in turn, could help to dampen discontent over price increases and longer delivery times. The extent to which Apple is counting on maintaining stable entry-level prices despite the shortage is already evident in its pricing strategy for the upcoming iPhone generation – a policy that can only be sustained if the supply chain doesn't completely collapse.
Supply chain beats politics
The real message behind Kuo's analysis extends beyond individual lobbying maneuvers. It reveals a corporation whose biggest challenge isn't price, but simply the availability of sufficient storage. As long as AI data centers worldwide are snapping up all the available storage, even a company with Apple's negotiating power and long-term supply contracts remains vulnerable. Against this backdrop, the lobbying efforts for CXMT are less about gaining cost advantages and more about diversifying its supply chain—in a market where scarcity is expected to worsen. (Image: Shutterstock / FabrikaSimf)
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