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One day before Apple's keynote, a market research firm has released new figures on the foldable smartphone market. They predict Apple will be in second place in the first year – and a year later at a level previously achieved by only one other manufacturer.
Counterpoint Research has updated its foldable market model and now expects Apple to ship up to six million units of its first foldable iPhone this year. This would represent a 25 percent market share, placing it second behind Samsung. Even more remarkable, however, is the figure for the following year: 40 percent. This forecast aligns with a range of expectations that we have compiled in our overview of the iPhone Ultra.
Key Facts at a Glance
- Counterpoint expects up to six million foldable iPhones to be shipped in 2026 – 25 percent of the market and second place behind Samsung with 38 percent, ahead of Huawei with 22 percent.
- For 2027, the company expects a more than doubled number of units and an Apple share of 40 percent.
- The 100 million foldable mark refers to all devices ever shipped since 2019, not to a single year.
- Foldable devices still make up around two percent of the total smartphone market and cost about three times as much as a conventional model.
- The initial quantity will remain limited; availability is expected to gradually expand across the markets.
What the forecast specifically says
The core message of the announcement doesn't concern Apple, but the market as a whole: By the end of the year, more than 100 million foldable smartphones are expected to have been shipped worldwide. This figure is cumulative and includes everything since the first commercially available foldable device in 2019 – marking the eighth generation of the category.
For a single year, the figure is significantly lower. Apple's six million devices, representing a 25 percent market share, translate to a market volume of approximately 24 million units for 2026. Put another way, nearly a quarter of all foldable devices ever shipped will be accounted for in that one year.
| Manufacturer | Share 2026 (forecast) |
|---|---|
| Samsung | 38 % |
| Apple | 25 % |
| Huawei | 22 % |
| rest | 15 % |
Counterpoint expects market growth of 37 percent in 2027 compared to the previous year – the strongest rate since 2022. This growth is expected to be driven by the Galaxy Z Fold8 series and a full year of sales for the foldable iPhone.
Why the 40 percent does not prove a change in leadership
The figure for 2027 is mentioned in the press release without a counterpart: Counterpoint quantifies Apple's future market share but provides no figure for Samsung in the same year. Comparing Apple's 40 percent to Samsung's 38 percent means comparing two different years. Whether Apple will take the lead cannot be determined from the published data.
Furthermore, the same forecast has changed significantly in a short period of time. In July, the firm still projected Samsung at 32 percent and Huawei at 24 percent – figures we reported on in our coverage of the foldable device forecast at the time. Now, Samsung is six points higher and Huawei two points lower.
| Manufacturer | July forecast | August update |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung | 32 % | 38 % |
| Apple | 25 % | 25 % |
| Huawei | 24 % | 22 % |
Apple's value is the only one that has remained unchanged. The movement is due to the competition, particularly to apparently stronger-than-expected demand for Samsung's new generation of foldable phones.
The quantity is limited by supply, not demand
Counterpoint explicitly states that the initial ramp-up is limited by manufacturing capacity, not by customer demand. The upper limit of six million units for 2026 stems precisely from this, along with the short sales window of just one quarter.
This aligns with recent reports from the supply chain. At the end of August, only a few hundred units per day were reportedly rolling off the production line because hinge and display tests were taking longer than planned.
Where the devices arrive first
The forecast only addresses distribution in general terms: Availability is expected to gradually expand across markets as production increases. A post by the Chinese leaker Instant Digital on Weibo offers more specifics, suggesting that the foldable iPhone might launch later in mainland China than in other markets. While this account has a history of accurate information regarding Apple products, it provides neither a timeframe nor evidence here – the claim stands alone. However, it aligns with previously reported indications of a staggered market launch over several months.
For German-speaking countries, this is the truly relevant part of the announcement. With a limited initial supply, the order of market releases determines whether a device will even be available here this fall. The Vision Pro recently demonstrated how this can play out with a limited launch: it was initially released only in the US in 2024 and didn't reach German-speaking countries until months later.
The price remains the real obstacle
Despite the dynamic growth, Counterpoint downplays the significance of the category itself: Foldable devices still account for only about two percent of the total smartphone market. The reason is explained in the same press release – prices are roughly three times higher than those of conventional models, and the company therefore anticipates mass-market adoption is still several years away.
This also puts Apple's 25 percent into perspective. A quarter of two percent of the global market is a strong entry into a niche, not a game-changer in the smartphone business. For you as a buyer, this means one thing above all: The foldable iPhone will remain, for the foreseeable future, a device for people who are consciously willing to pay the premium – not the next standard.
What the keynote can change about the numbers
Wednesday will reveal which of the assumptions proves correct. Price, launch markets, and delivery date are the three factors by which each of these predictions must immediately be measured – and Apple typically announces all three immediately after the presentation.
Do you believe Apple will reach 40 percent market share in its first full year of sales – or do you expect that limited production will reduce this figure again by 2027? Share your prediction in the comments.
