Apple: Analyst forecasts point to stable growth

Apple is about to present its results for the second quarter of 2025. Despite the ongoing tariff dispute between the US and China, analysts at JP Morgan view the development positively. What's particularly interesting is that the increasing demand could give Apple a significant short-term sales boost. Here's what's behind it and what you can expect.

In times of trade conflicts, many expect a decline in corporate revenue. However, in Apple's case, the exact opposite appears to be happening. JP Morgan expects the company to benefit from the current uncertainty in both the second and third quarters of 2025. Increased consumer demand, early inventory orders, and stable margins will be crucial factors.

Apple ahead of Q2 figures: Sales and profit better than expected

On May 1, 2025, Apple will present its second-quarter results. This refers to the period from January to March, which Apple refers to as Q2, since Apple's fiscal year begins on October 1. Despite the burden of the impending tariffs, JP Morgan forecasts a good quarter. The main reason is the growing demand for iPhones, Macs, and other products. Many consumers and retailers apparently want to hedge against possible price increases and are therefore buying earlier. JP Morgan has therefore increased its revenue estimate for Q2 2025 from the original $93.5 billion to $95.8 billion. Earnings per share are now set at $1.66, also higher than the previous forecast of $1.59. Both figures are above the current consensus expectations of $94.2 billion in revenue and $1.61 in earnings per share. If Apple achieves these figures, it would represent revenue growth of 5.5 percent compared to the previous year.

Q2/2025: Apple to present figures on May 1 – and discuss tariffs

Stable gross margins despite tariff fears

Despite the threat of new tariffs, JP Morgan expects Apple to maintain its gross margin. Analysts expect a margin of 47.1 percent for the second quarter, which is exactly in line with the consensus. This shows that Apple is able to maintain its profitability despite the challenging conditions (via JP Morgan).

Positive expectations for the third quarter

The situation remains somewhat more uncertain for the third quarter of 2025, as new global tariffs could come into effect from then on. Apple will be directly affected. Nevertheless, JP Morgan expects moderate growth. Analysts expect that both consumers and retailers will increase their purchases before the tariffs come into effect in order to avoid rising prices. This so-called anticipatory effect could once again benefit Apple. JP Morgan forecasts third-quarter revenue of $90.8 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of $89.2 billion. Gross margin is expected to be 46.3 percent, slightly below the consensus expectation of 46.7 percent. Earnings per share are expected to be $1.51, also higher than the consensus of $1.48.

Optimistic rating of the share

Despite the uncertainties caused by the tariff war, JP Morgan maintains its positive assessment of Apple. The analysts maintain an "overweight" rating and set a price target of $245. Three months can change a lot in the financial markets, but at the moment, Apple's outlook looks stable and better than that of many other tech companies.

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Apple remains strong even in crisis mode

Apple is once again demonstrating that the company remains strong even in difficult times. The combination of robust demand, stable margins, and a smart market strategy could help the company achieve significant growth despite the tariff dispute. On May 1, it will become clearer whether the optimistic forecasts will come true. But one thing is already clear: Apple remains a company that seizes opportunities in every situation. (Image: Shutterstock / iwonder TV)

Disclaimer: No recommendation for investments

This article does not constitute financial or investment advice. The information contained herein is for journalistic and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.